Wednesday, February 3, 2010

You know it is a pretty lame day when....

the action after hours assumes more significance than the action during the market hours!

Well, dear readers, that's just the kind of day it was. The major indices didn't really go anywhere, so I wouldn't bother putting any of the index charts up. What I said yesterday still holds, and the MA(50) levels should be the regions for you to keep an eye on.

Two charts that did have significant movement for oil and the US dollar. USO had a crack at the MA(50) and failed. But it was a pretty decent effort and I expect it to have a shot at it again. Keep an eye out for whether it succeeds. 

The dollar on the other hand made an even more significant move today, going above the MA(200), on significant volume. The volume pattern seems extremely bullish. While this strength in the dollar doesn't bode well for the overall market, I dont see this inverse relationship between the dollar and the markets lasting for much longer.

So, what happened after-hours that it assumed greater significance than the market action during trading hours? Well, Visa for one beat the estimates. With MasterCard also reporting tomorrow, these earning reports might invigorate the financials for the short term. But more importantly, Cisco beat the estimates easily and most importantly, CEO Chambers had a bullish take on the economic recovery. As you readers might be knowing, Chambers' commentary on the business and the overall economy  is a much anticipated event each quarter and his being bullish could give the markets a lift tomorrow.

Personally speaking, I took a small position in IVAN early in the day at 3.59. Small for two reasons - (1) I wanted to add more after it broke 3.60 comfortably (2) I wanted to put a wider stop loss than  usual as I thought a stock that had gone up over 10% with good volume the previous day deserved it. Well, it turned out that it tried to break 3.60 three times during the day but couldnt make it and the wider stop loss meant I am still in it. In hindsight, I shouldnt have waited for it to  break the resistance rather than anticipate it. 

That's it from me for today as I have some stuff to take care of before the day ends. Take care and good luck trading!

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