Thursday, February 11, 2010

Oil at crucial levels

Well, the bulls finally managed to push the market beyond 1072, which now becomes the support. Next resistance - 1085. Since I have shown the S&P chart many times already in the daily reviews many times in the recent past, let me instead share two other charts that caught my attention today - USO and UUP.

Let's have a look at USO first. It got rejected at MA(200) today. If it does manage to somehow overcome this resistance, immediately next is MA(50). MA(200) and MA(50) are about to cross in a bearish crossover. But perhaps most tellingly, the volume has been pretty disappointing on the upside. Commodity stocks had a field day today but I suggest caution while dealing with oil. The situation should become clearer in the next few trading days.

And now on to UUP. I am kinda surprised by how well it held up even today. Also, notice the bullish volume pattern. Let's not be too hasty in calling a top here. Let's give it a couple of days to see how it plays out. Just have a look at volume since December. The top six volume days since then have all been to the upside. Be careful my dear readers, be very careful.

I posted late last evening that solar stocks were due a bounce. A ballsy prediction, even if I say so myself, as everywhere I looked traders were shorting solar stocks at will. Well, they bounced. Here are all the stocks I pointed out yesterday:

FSLR - +4.14%
CSIQ - +6.58%
JASO - +9.01%
YGE - +1.71%
TAN -  +2.92%

Congrats to all those played them! Unfortunately, I didnt get time to see the markets at all today and missed out on them. Those who did play them, I hope you did book some profits in them. Nobody ever got broke taking profits!

Like I said, I didnt get any time to watch the markets today. Actually, let me correct that, I got exactly one minute to watch the markets today, the very first minute of the trading day. In that minute, I got out of UAUA at 15.31. It closed at 15.66. Oh well....Disappointed?? Yes. Frustrated?? No. Right move?? Yes!! Let me explain what I was thinking when I sold them:

(1) The futures had turned negative even after good news from Greece and great job numbers. Not a good sign.
(2) I feared the closing of airports due to inclement weather might have an adverse effect on the airline  stocks.
(3) I knew I wouldn't get a chance to see the markets all day today.
So, I sold. If I had to make the same decision all over again, I would do exactly the same thing. So, no regrets. 

By the blessings of the Stock Gods, I have had an amazing week and my goal now is pretty much to protect my profits. But if any opportunity comes knocking, hopefully I will be able to welcome it in.

I will be back later tonight if I see any interesting set-ups. 

Take care and good luck trading!

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