The week ahead

Take a look at the S&P chart below. There are two reasons you can be short term bullish the below chart: (a) You are heavily invested to the long side, thus making it hard to think objectively (b) You have been seriously hurt going to the short side during this bull rally before. Otherwise, its easy to see that 1340 is presenting some serious resistance to the markets. The market has been in "Though shall not gap down" mode for the last few days, but hasn't managed to close near the highs of the day throughout the week. The MACD has already turned and there is good chance that the hypothesis of a rounded top that I had presented early this week might play out. But that's all it is. A chance. And that's the best you have got while playing the markets. Odds and probabilities.

My strategy for next week is pretty clear. Am not going to go aggressively long until 1345 is broken. At the same time, I have no plans of going short here. MA(50)-1300 is going to be a strong area of support for the bulls. Any pullback would probably be taken as a buying opportunity. Selling into gap ups every morning has worked for me very well in the recent days but it has also hurt me in stocks like CLNE, which continued going up. But no regrets there. When one buys a stock, one does not get in thinking of a gap up, so gaps up are basically a gift that should be made the most of. At least that's my thinking. 

Successful traders will tell you that they make the most of their profits for the year in a few days. Rest of the time, you concentrate on playing defense, taking what the market gives you and protecting your account. It looks like it is going to be a week where one plays defense but at the same time, look for the market to show its hand after over a week of consolidation.

Take care and good luck!