Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Dollar analysis

With there being a high degree of inverse correlation between the markets and the dollar in the last few days, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at the dollar. Let's start with the daily chart first. The dollar has been in a sustained downtrend since January this year and it finally broke off it on last Friday as can be seen by the break of the descending trendline marked below. Two days of consolidation followed by the upmove today. Today was crucial as this was the first time the dollar has managed to close above MA(50) since January. Looks good for further upmove but further resistance at 75.65 and 76.40s.

The weekly chart makes for even more interesting reading. The chart below makes it easier to realize the extent of the weakness in dollar in recent times. The marked trendline was support for a number of years and should now act as resistance and I expect it to be, very tough resistance. That is THE level to watch out for on the dollar. If the dollar gets rejected by it, expect further upside in the equities. At the same time, don't underestimate the weekly MA(20) level which has always acted as strong support/resistance. 

To sum it up, as impressive as the recent up move in dollar might be, I am still not be willing to bet on it until it breaks the ascending trendline marked on the above chart. Watch out for this level for a clue to where the markets are headed in general.

Take care and good luck!

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