Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Don't start celebrating just yet

Today was no doubt a very bullish day dear readers. Some of the market indices were up over 3%. As the regular readers of this blog know, we were expecting this bounce here and I wrote a post earlier today on how you could have seen this bounce coming. Check it out if you haven't done so already! Here is the link.
That said, not everything was perfect today. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but I would just like to bring a few points to everyone's attention. Let's start with the S&P chart first.

(1) 1040 becomes the "new" support now.
(2) Where was the volume?! In an ideal world, you would like to see a bounce of this nature being accompanied by above average volume, but the volume was not at all encouraging today.
(3) Keep an eye out on 1060 level tomorrow. We closed barely above that today, so technically it becomes support now but we shall see about that.
(4) Next resistance - ~1075 levels.
(5) 50 MA coming down rapidly ready to provide major resistance. 

The way I see it there is limited upside in the future as we have a lot of major resistance coming right ahead.
A similar pattern can be observed in the NASDAQ chart. If anything, it is much closer to the MA(50) resistance and we shall see the market have a crack at that soon. Keep a close eye on how the market reacts to this important level.

Strategy - I am bullish here, just like I was yesterday. Being long is still the correct play according to me. I just want to advise caution with this post here. One rally does not a trend make. And most importantly, remember there is nothing wrong with taking partial profits along the way. Keep taking profits and moving those stops higher.

Take care and good luck!

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