Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Keep an eye on the US dollar!

The dollar is the key to where the markets head from here in my opinion. This is from a weekend post on the dollar.

"The dollar broke out of a two month descending channel earlier this month. Interestingly, in a show of strength, it broke out of this channel with a bounce off MA(200). Of course, there was the now common break of MA(200) for a couple of days, probably to run over some stops lying just below MA(200). The dollar consolidated nicely since that breakout and held the MA(20), before finally making a relatively big move up on Friday. So far, so good. But what makes things interesting now, and the reason why I decided to do this post, is the presence of MA(50) directly overhead. This presents the first big challenge to this uptrend in the dollar since its breakout earlier this month. "

Well, the dollar did have a crack at the MA(50) today and got rejected off it. The intraday bounce in the markets today coincided with the intraday weekness in the dollar, emphasizing the importance of keeping an eye on the dollar here. Here is the updated chart.

Take care and good luck!

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