Friday, June 24, 2016

On Trump and Brexit

Surely you have read enough on the matter, but I couldn’t help but get my two cents in. While as traders and investors, we can get overly engrossed in the percentage decline in the markets and currencies, the historic Brexit referendum also provides us with an opportunity to step back, take a breather and appreciate the larger picture at play here. We were witness to history being made last night. And I am not talking just about the EU. For the last few years, EU falling apart has pretty much been a question of when, rather than if.

I am talking about the much larger picture here. I truly believe that despite all the challenges we face, right now is the best time to be alive in the history of mankind. I also sincerely believe that it just gets better from here. This belief mostly stems from my faith in man’s ingenuity and spirit of innovation. Our best is yet to come.

But make no mistake, change is coming. It’s already upon us. Numerous studies are predicting that by the year 2030, 50-60% jobs, as we know it, will cease to exist. Just Google it. I shudder to imagine the social upheaval this will cause. Let’s say the studies are off a bit. It’s not 2030 but 2035. It’s not 50-60% jobs, but 40%. That’s still a massive social revolution upon us. And we can already see the first signs of it around us. A growing part of the population is not participating in the wonderful progress that we are making; rather they are hurting because of it. Think automation and jobs. What are we doing to get people ready for this change that is soon coming? In my opinion, nothing. And that’s the part that worries me. It’s not the change, but our level of preparedness, or rather the lack of it, for this certain change.

Now see the rise of Trump and Brexit in this context. These are not isolated chapters in human history. It’s the forgotten man’s chance to raise his voice and make his presence felt. He has been feeling neglected and left behind for far too long. By the way, please don’t misunderstand me. I am an ardent fan of capitalism and believe it to be mostly responsible for the advances that we have made as a society.

And yes, I still believe our best is yet to come. But we are surely in for some interesting times ahead.

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