REC tax free bonds August 2013 subscription status

Just thought that I would do a quick post on the subscription status of REC tax free bonds, the first such offering for the financial year 2013-14, for the Indian readers. The bonds were oversubscribed on the first day i.e. August 30 itself. But that's what one would expect if the interest rate offered is as high as 8.71% (tax free) for 15 years! BTW, the issue is also open to NRIs.

The following table shows the subscription status at the end of Day 1.

Category	Number of times subscribed
1 – Qualified Institutional Bidders	1.03
2 – Non-Institutional Bidders	2.87
3 – High Net Worth Individuals	2.80
4 – Retail Individual Investors	1.22

But no need to get disappointed if you were planning to subscribe to these bonds on Monday. While the original issue size is Rs. 1000 crore, the bonds do come with the option to retain over subscription upto Rs. 2500 crore. But do hurry, as that too should get exhausted early next week.

Take care and good luck!

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My story

Been over six years since I started trading. Sounds like such a long time. I am not as young as I once was but not yet old enough that six years would not seem like much. Let's see. Started trading from a studio apartment in a small college town in Pennsylvania. Since then, got a Masters, then a PhD, moved to India, got married......that's quite a list. Some changes that I had expected, some changes that I had hoped for, some changes that I had never imagined. But one thing has remained pretty much the same during all this time. Trading. 

Which, come to think of it, is pretty ironic. Considering no two days in trading are ever the same, for that matter even two minutes, it is pretty ironic that I consider it to be a constant during the past six years. Still the most challenging thing I have done in my life. Still the hardest and the easiest endeavor. Still hate the Friday afternoons. Still wait for Monday mornings (though that's become Monday evenings now, Indian Standard Time). Still so much to learn. Still have the same dreams.

Here's my story so far. How I started by losing money. The mistakes I made. The mistakes I make. What it took to be consistent. Hopefully there are a few more chapters to write in the future.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Take care and good luck!

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Watchlist

Here's a rather extensive watchlist of stocks that are setting up nicely here. Most of them have had a rather decent run up, followed by a period of consolidation and then, a bounce off MA(20) today. You can find my comments on the individual setups on my twitter feed here.

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Take care and good luck!

Two to watch out for

The market did work off the oversold conditions today with the S&P ending just below MA(50). So, that will be the first level to watch out for tomorrow. Here are a couple of stocks that I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow.

The first one is SREV. Nice ascending triangle on this, with resistance at 13.03. Watch out for volume coming in.

And here is its weekly chart. Once it crosses the 13 mark, the next resistance is at 13.99.

The next one is NTES. Consolidated nicely in the last couple of days but could do with some more consolidation. But watch out for a break of previous highs of 74.69 with volume.

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Take care and good luck!

Where are we and where do we go from here

Had posted on Thursday that the markets had entered oversold territory. Also from that post, " the odds favor a bounce here. Oversold can very well become oversold, but then the odds would just favor the bulls even more. Add to that the fact that S&P is right at MA(50), which has been an area of support before." Well, the markets did not go anywhere on Friday and the S&P ended just below MA(50). All that means is that odds still favor a bounce here.

But a fair bit of damage has already been done with this latest "pullback". It is not going to be easy for the bulls to regain 1680 and soon, the MA(20) is going to join it to make it an even tougher resistance level. If Monday is another decent down day, one can expect MA(50) also to act as initial resistance.

Also, the bulls would like to see the markets bounce back quickly here. Major moving averages should act as a springboard, and not as areas of consolidation. And that is exactly what happened in April and June, as marked in the chart below.

In a nutshell, expecting a bounce in the next couple of days. But for the bulls, the real work starts after that bounce.

Take care and good luck!

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Two to watch out for

Dry bulk shipping stocks have been on quite a roll recently. I remember that when I first started trading, these stocks used to be quite the flavor of the season. All that does is make me feel old. Anyway.

Here are the weekly charts of VLCCF and DSX. As you can see, that they have crossed some rather important levels in the last couple of days, and look good for more. Feel free to click on the charts for a larger view.

Here is my view on the overall markets after the action today, in case you are interested.

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Take care and good luck!

Short term oversold but ......

A 200 odd point down day! How very inconsiderate of the markets.....tut tut. But seriously, an impressive show of strength by the bears, who started the day on top and pressed home the advantage all day. With two consecutive three digit decline, including a 200 point down day, its time to turn to our trusty ol' McClellan Oscillator to see if the markets have reached oversold levels.

Here are the weekly McClellan oscillator charts for Nasdaq and NYSE respectively.

As the astute observers amongst you must have certainly observed, the markets have reached oversold levels. What does that tell you? Well, sadly, the markets work in terms of probabilities, and not certainties. What it does tell you is that the odds favor a bounce here. Oversold can very well become oversold, but then the odds would just favor the bulls even more. Add to that the fact that S&P is right at MA(50), which has been an area of support before.

Then why the "but" in the post title. The last couple of days have done considerable damage to the charts and the bulls will have to do some considerable work to cross some important levels, if they are to take control once again. But more on that over the weekend.

Here are two stocks that I like going ahead.

Take care and good luck!

You can follow me on twitter for latest blog updates. Also, here is the link for free subscription to the blog.