Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Earnings season strategy

This is from a post that I had written earlier. This is my strategy for each and every earnings season, so obviously it is still holds true.

Do keep in mind that it is the earnings season and the big guns start reporting today onwards with **** reporting after hours. Any surprises and all the technicals get thrown out of the window. I know (and hope) that this is stating the obvious but please do see when a particular stock is reporting before getting into it. Also, do remember that what is important is not the news itself but the reaction to the news. It is very common to see a stock beat the street estimates easily and still fall down hard and similarly, a stock can easily rally on "bad" news.

I personally don't like holding any stock through its earnings. I feel that no matter how much one thinks one knows about a stock, holding a stock through its earnings is basically gambling. A bad reaction and one might not even get a chance to get out with a small loss. If you are great at studying the fundamentals of the company and the particular industry, you will be justified the argue the validity of this point here but again keep in mind, that a stock can fall down hard even on an earnings beat. If you are like me, you will just enjoy the action from the sidelines!
Meanwhile here is a stock that I had posted about twice last week. TZOO was up over 10% yesterday and looks good for more. However, it does report tomorrow and like I have written above holding it through earnings would be pure gambling, no matter how good it looks.
Take care and good luck!

1 comment:

Trin Café said...

I cant agree with you more, even if the fundamentals are great, accounts can still get crushed.