tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post2848604474981382538..comments2023-05-18T11:44:05.460-04:00Comments on Trade to learn: SPX 1173positiontraderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15867225573384096103noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-69539030802302059252010-12-01T23:24:40.778-05:002010-12-01T23:24:40.778-05:00Thanks. Yes, starting in October i've been slo...Thanks. Yes, starting in October i've been slowly buying 6 mo - 1 yr options on a variety of overpriced stocks recently, i mentioned i am accumulating NFLX $75 - $125 puts and still am, cheaply i might add. Some of my other put holdings include GM, BAC, and mostly recently TSLA. These companies face the most exposure to credit tightening and bond holders, political pandering, and market Billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-35565712329349168842010-11-30T23:01:28.595-05:002010-11-30T23:01:28.595-05:00Thanks for the detailed, well thought of and very ...Thanks for the detailed, well thought of and very well articulated comment Bill! If you ever start a blog of your own, I would be the first one to follow you. So, are you slowly loading up on shorts here or is there a certain inflection point when you start doing so?positiontraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15867225573384096103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-59494463819678679452010-11-30T22:24:15.191-05:002010-11-30T22:24:15.191-05:00Now all this being said my assessment isn't th...Now all this being said my assessment isn't that the US will break up or cease to exist or that "the end is near", but i strongly sense we are about to enter the 2nd half of the Great Recession and its not going to be full of roses, so to speak. I think its very possible we see a %30-40 drop in current market value in the next 6-9 months and i would not be shocked if it began Billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-13913818655022323002010-11-30T22:23:53.293-05:002010-11-30T22:23:53.293-05:00What's happening in Europe with the Debt Crisi...What's happening in Europe with the Debt Crisis is definitely a precursor to the US for three reasons.<br />1. California<br />2. Lack of Debt Demand<br />3. Denial<br /><br />The US is definitely in denial and even though we can print our own money, we risk losing our ability to sell our debt the more we print, as evidence by the last 30 yr note bond sale and its rising yield (the rise of Billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-83978889361609408762010-11-30T22:22:59.413-05:002010-11-30T22:22:59.413-05:00This is a little long but here you go:
My 6-9 mon...This is a little long but here you go:<br /><br />My 6-9 month outlook is extremely bearish, and i even surprise myself in saying that b/c i've only ever said that one other time and that was in the spring of 2008 to my father at the time, when he asked what i thought about the markets (i also told my friend not to buy a house in 2007 but admittedly i bought a house in 2009 and wished i had Billnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-82149189692718509292010-11-30T04:28:22.137-05:002010-11-30T04:28:22.137-05:00Agree with you Bill. These are not the right marke...Agree with you Bill. These are not the right markets to be holding any sort of biases, whether to the long side or the short side. All this intraday volatility does provide great trading opportunities if one knows what one is doing but at the same time, it is important to remain cautious and not to get carried away here. Personally, I am sticking to what's working (just wrote a post on my positiontraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15867225573384096103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7309011280153553421.post-73811117367261387892010-11-29T23:33:10.053-05:002010-11-29T23:33:10.053-05:00I agree the market is in state of malaise even wit...I agree the market is in state of malaise even with the 100+ pt swings (Dow). Data says it should be going higher even with a stronger dollar, but investors have to many reasons to not step on the gas. Europe is a major concern but i think fear will subside temporary until the next big bailout esp if they preemptively bailout Portugal. December should end higher but key word is "should"Billnoreply@blogger.com